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INDIA STOCK MARKET 2016 REPORT

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#Crude Price Doubles- 2016 Started with Fall of Crude Price. The consensus target among Large Investment banks like Goldman Sacks, Barclays, RBS etc for Crude price Target was 10-15$, well as we see it today, crude prices have doubled from its February low of 26$. Infact commodities have been the best performing stocks in 2017, where Nifty metals is up 40% for the year. This has happened on backdrop of lower Chinese demand.

#Brexit- In july Majority of people expected that Brexit wouldn’t happened and Incase it did market’s would crash as that would be the start of fall of EuroZone. Well Brexit did happen, but FTSE has rallied 20% since then and is very close to its lifetime high.

 India's economy surpasses that of UK

#Donald Trump – The odds of Hillary Clinton winning was 91% till 3 days before election day. The Market was expecting that if Hillary wins, the market will rally and incase Trump Wins, markets would Crash. Well Trump won, and US Markets went on to hit Lifetime highs and have rallied 10% in last 45 days.

#Buy India, Sell China – India was the biggest overweight country among emerging Market by majority of Global Funds as it was the fastest growing country in the world beating China, turns out its has been the worse performing. Brazil which has been in recession for last 11 quarter, saw its currency crash, in mist of a political turmoil which was the biggest underweight for global funds has been the best performing Index with MSCI Brazil Returns of 56%

Reasons Not To Trade Forex

#Demonetization - After the demonetization news, sensing some sectors have been affected badly markets or in the down trend for the whole of this December. Demonetization indeed a short term pain but yet to be analysed how it will pan out for long term and what steps will be taken to curb black money

Top gainers for the year 2016 include names like Hindalco (up 83 per cent), Yes Bank (up 57 per cent), Tata Steel (up 51 per cent), BPCL (up 42 per cent), and Eicher Motors (up 31 per cent).

Top  losers for the year 2016 include names like Idea Cellular (down 47 per cent), BHEL (down 28 per cent), Aurobindo Pharma (down 23 per cent), Sun Pharma (down 22 per cent), and Bharti Infratel (down 19 per cent). 

Conclusion – Markets have a short Memory, today the consensus is that everyone is expecting that nifty might be weak in 2017, demonetization will hurt the economy really badly, who knows by the end of 2017 Nifty might be Hitting a New lifetime high.

Few stuff I learned in 2016 market :
  1. Making money in market is very easy only greed keeps you in loss.
  2. Follow discipline in trading

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